In the past month, the global aluminum market was primarily influenced by China’s economic challenges and anticipated responses from the Chinese government. Following the central bank's announcement in September of the largest economic stimulus package since the COVID-19 pandemic, the market partially priced in potential measures, but skepticism remains due to the still vague announcements. As a result, the aluminum 3-month contract on the LME, which saw a sharp increase in September, moved sideways with some volatility over the past month. The contract traded in a range between $2,500 and $2,715 per ton, closing at $2,625 per ton at the end of the month.

At the beginning of September, the positive trend from the previous month did not initially continue. Weak economic data from China and disappointing figures from the U.S. labor market put pressure on prices. However, by mid-month, there was a significant rise in the price of aluminum, partly due to the announcement of an extensive stimulus package by the Chinese central bank, which boosted market confidence. As a result, the aluminum 3-month contract on the LME increased by 150 USD/ton over the month, closing at 2,605 USD/ton at the end of the month.

After a decline in the aluminum 3-month contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in the previous two months, the price recovered in August. Expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have led to an increase in the price of the dollar-denominated commodity due to both the possible positive effects on the economy and the weakening of the US dollar. In addition, there is a tense situation on the October date on the LME due to the large long position of a market participant who holds over 30% of the open October contracts. The October-November spread is trading in backwardation. At the end of the month, the aluminum 3-month contract on the LME was quoted at USD 2,450/t.

The month of June was relatively quiet. The upward trend of the previous months could not continue, and the aluminum 3-month contract fell by about 135 USD/ton to around 2,500 USD/ton by mid-month. The main reasons for this were a stronger dollar and mixed economic data from China, which dampened expectations for increasing demand.

The bullish trend on the commodity markets continued in May. In the aluminum market, buying interest from financial market participants was joined by concerns about a shortage in the aluminum market due to production cuts in Australia. The aluminum 3-month contract reached an annual high of USD 2,799/tonne on 30 May, but then fell slightly and closed the month up around USD 60/tonne at USD 2,650/tonne.

The aluminum market continued its upward trend in April, driven by various factors. On the one hand, there was increased buying interest from financial market participants with hopes of an improvement in the global economic situation. Rising demand prospects and industrial data from China also continue to support the price. 

The aluminum market recorded an upward trend last March. This was supported by improved demand prospects from China, the largest aluminum consumer, which was reflected in the high aluminum imports of recent months and stable industrial production, for example. 

In February, the aluminum market was in a state of flux, with discussions about potential sanctions against Russian aluminum by the EU and the USA making headlines and causing a short-term price increase of 80 dollars.

In January of this year, the renewed discussion on EU sanctions against additional Russian aluminum products caused unrest in the market. So far, almost all aluminum products could be imported into Europe without hindrance, thus financing the Russian war. The news caused the 3-month contract to rise by 100 USD/ton in the fourth week of the year. Nevertheless, due to a correction in the rally at the end of the previous year, the price decreased by a total of 150 USD/ton over the month. At the end of the month, the contract is now slightly above 2,270 USD/ton.