After a quiet November, the aluminum market saw some movement again in December. Initially, the aluminium 3-month spot contract reached its lowest level since August 2021 on 13 December. In particular, the expectation of deliveries to the warehouses of the London Metal Exchange as a signal of good metal availability put pressure on prices.

The budget crisis caused uncertainty in Germany in and after November. After the Federal Constitutional Court declared the taking on of further debt to finance the Economic Stabilization Fund as unlawful, there is a lack of financial resources in the federal budget. Accordingly, it is unclear which promised aid can still be budgeted and where less support can be expected.

Last month was overshadowed by the Hamas attack on Israel. The renewed and brutal escalation of the Middle East conflict is causing global political tensions and is also unsettling the metal and raw material markets. Further destabilization could also jeopardize existing trade routes in the region.

The London Metal Exchange saw an increase in September, especially towards the end of the month. There are signs of a recovery in the Chinese manufacturing sector. For this reason, imports of aluminum into the People's Republic also paid off. Also for this reason there were further cancellations of warrants at low free stocks in the warehouses of the LME. The 3-month contract on the LMA rose slightly above USD 140 per ton during the month and closed the month at USD 2,350 per ton.

In August, the aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange consolidated after its rise in July. An expected increase in production in China, particularly in Yunnan province, could lead to a supply overhang and put pressure on prices. The aluminum 3-month contract lost about $30 per ton and closed the month at around $2,200 per ton.

In July, the price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange recorded its first increase during the month since January of this year. This price increase was supported by expectations of increased economic stimulus from China by the Politburo. Because metrics such as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index in the People's Republic were below expectations, the government is under pressure to take action to meet its growth targets. During the month, the price of the aluminum 3-month contract increased by about USD 75 per ton and is currently around USD 2230 per ton.

In June, the aluminum contract on the LME traded without major price fluctuations. Concerns about weak economic development continued to put some pressure on prices. In contrast, the economic stimulus package of the Chinese People's Republic, the largest consumer of aluminum, had a supporting effect. The price of the aluminum 3-month contract fell by around USD 100/ton in the course of the month and traded in the narrow range of USD 2,315/ton and USD 2,142/ton.

The general concern about the global economic development continues to preoccupy the aluminum market. Among other things, the mood was depressed by data from China, where the figures paint a picture of a low-growth industry and economy. The German economy remained without growth for a second quarter and is thus now in recession.

April marks the end of a quiet month in the aluminum market. The aluminum 3-month contract was traded on the LME in the narrow range of USD 2290/ton to USD 2462/ton. The contango, which reached a long-term high in March, reduced somewhat in April. Because nearby futures were valued as tight in the market in the meantime, the futures price curve was even traded with a backwardation in the front area in some cases.

In March, turbulence in the banking sector caused unrest on the financial markets. In particular, the crisis surrounding the Swiss bank Credit Suisse worried some market participants. In contrast, reduced expectations of future interest rate decisions by central banks, among other things, had a supportive effect. The aluminum 3-month contract on the London Metal Exchange traded in the comparatively narrow range of USD 2,254/ton to USD 2,455/ton.

In December, the aluminum market continued to bottom out. In particular, the change in the Covid policy of the People's Republic of China and the associated complete relaxation of all restrictions spread optimism. Nevertheless, the aluminum 3-month contract showed a sideways movement despite this news, as the effects of the easing remain difficult to assess in view of the rising case numbers in China.